{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "published_on": "2026-08-21",
  "historical_anchor": {
    "study": "Klayman, Soll, González-Vallejo, and Barlas (1999)",
    "citation": "Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79(3), 216-247. DOI 10.1006/obhd.1999.2847.",
    "table": "Experiment 1, Table 1",
    "source_pages": "226-228",
    "data_kind": "Manually transcribed published domain aggregates, not participant-level observations",
    "license": "No data license was found. The article is copyrighted. This minimal factual transcription needs editorial and legal review.",
    "rows": [
      {"domain":"museums and galleries visitors","proportion_correct":0.541,"mean_confidence":0.670,"printed_difference":0.130,"source_page":226},
      {"domain":"1992-model car mileage","proportion_correct":0.613,"mean_confidence":0.662,"printed_difference":0.050,"source_page":226},
      {"domain":"tourist-city July high","proportion_correct":0.637,"mean_confidence":0.762,"printed_difference":0.124,"source_page":226},
      {"domain":"1991 college tuition","proportion_correct":0.656,"mean_confidence":0.689,"printed_difference":0.033,"source_page":226},
      {"domain":"food calories","proportion_correct":0.672,"mean_confidence":0.795,"printed_difference":0.123,"source_page":226},
      {"domain":"shampoo price per ounce","proportion_correct":0.684,"mean_confidence":0.715,"printed_difference":0.031,"source_page":226},
      {"domain":"mountain height","proportion_correct":0.688,"mean_confidence":0.615,"printed_difference":-0.073,"source_page":226},
      {"domain":"1990 state poverty rate","proportion_correct":0.697,"mean_confidence":0.712,"printed_difference":0.015,"source_page":226},
      {"domain":"distance from Los Angeles","proportion_correct":0.728,"mean_confidence":0.801,"printed_difference":0.073,"source_page":226},
      {"domain":"1990 state population","proportion_correct":0.750,"mean_confidence":0.799,"printed_difference":0.049,"source_page":226},
      {"domain":"national life expectancy","proportion_correct":0.791,"mean_confidence":0.774,"printed_difference":-0.017,"source_page":226},
      {"domain":"presidential order","proportion_correct":0.856,"mean_confidence":0.869,"printed_difference":0.012,"source_page":226}
    ],
    "printed_means": {
      "proportion_correct": 0.693,
      "mean_confidence": 0.739,
      "difference": 0.046,
      "display_precision": 3
    }
  },
  "experiment_3": {
    "data_kind": "Published summaries only. No item-level responses, interval endpoints, domain table, or exact trial denominator were located.",
    "participants": 32,
    "different_cohort_from_experiment_1": true,
    "nominal_coverage": 0.90,
    "published_overall_coverage": 0.43,
    "published_blocked_coverage": 0.49,
    "published_mixed_coverage": 0.37,
    "published_after_extreme_participant_removed": 0.45,
    "published_domain_extrema": {"distance_from_los_angeles":0.22,"car_mileage":0.65},
    "source_pages": {"method":238,"coverage":239,"extrema_and_sensitivity":240,"shortfall_summary":242},
    "trial_count_uncertainty": "The method inherits a 120-question procedure, while the printed instruction says 150 questions. The article does not resolve this discrepancy."
  },
  "literature_notes": {
    "teigen_jorgensen_2005": {
      "stated_confidence_for_imposed_intervals": 0.525,
      "paired_hit_rate": 0.234,
      "warning": "The 52.5% value is stated confidence, not coverage."
    }
  },
  "truth_key": {
    "version": 0,
    "label": "2026-08-21 institutional reference key",
    "snapshot_note": "Source pages were read during the scout audit. Byte snapshots were not archived, so source_snapshot_sha256 is null rather than invented.",
    "items": [
      {"id":"apollo_seconds","label":"Apollo 11 mission duration, range zero to splashdown","short":"Apollo 11 duration","value":703115,"unit":"seconds","source_url":"https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/sp-4029.pdf","source_wording":"NASA SP-4029 reports 195 hours, 18 minutes, 35 seconds.","conversion":"195*3600 + 18*60 + 35","retrieved":"2026-08-21","source_snapshot_sha256":null},
      {"id":"denali_feet","label":"Denali official 2015 summit elevation","short":"Denali elevation","value":20310,"unit":"feet above mean sea level","source_url":"https://www.usgs.gov/news/national-news-release/new-elevation-nations-highest-peak","source_wording":"USGS 2015 official elevation release reports 20,310 feet.","conversion":null,"retrieved":"2026-08-21","source_snapshot_sha256":null},
      {"id":"hoover_cubic_yards","label":"Concrete used in Hoover Dam itself","short":"Hoover Dam concrete","value":3250000,"unit":"cubic yards","source_url":"https://npgallery.nps.gov/GetAsset/ac1d9578-a98b-4bd3-96b5-58f26f42e2a0/","source_wording":"The NPS record gives 3.25 million cubic yards for the dam itself.","conversion":null,"retrieved":"2026-08-21","source_snapshot_sha256":null},
      {"id":"golden_gate_feet","label":"Golden Gate Bridge main-span length","short":"Golden Gate main span","value":4200,"unit":"feet","source_url":"https://www.goldengate.org/bridge/bridge-operations/","source_wording":"The bridge district reports a 4,200-foot main span.","conversion":null,"retrieved":"2026-08-21","source_snapshot_sha256":null},
      {"id":"mercury_days","label":"Mercury sidereal orbital period","short":"Mercury orbital period","value":87.969,"unit":"Earth days","source_url":"https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/planets/phys_par.html","source_wording":"JPL defines the sidereal orbital period and gives the consistent Julian-year parameter.","conversion":"Versioned archived NASA and JPL value, 87.969 days","retrieved":"2026-08-21","source_snapshot_sha256":null},
      {"id":"eiffel_rivets","label":"Rivets used in Eiffel Tower construction","short":"Eiffel Tower rivets","value":2500000,"unit":"rivets","source_url":"https://www.toureiffel.paris/en/the-monument/history","source_wording":"The Eiffel Tower operating company reports 2,500,000 rivets.","conversion":null,"retrieved":"2026-08-21","source_snapshot_sha256":null},
      {"id":"us_population_1890","label":"Total 1890 United States population, including named special enumerations","short":"1890 U.S. population","value":62979766,"unit":"people","source_url":"https://www2.census.gov/prod2/decennial/documents/HisGrow1790-1890/HisGrow02.pdf","source_wording":"The Census report totals the general enumeration and the separately enumerated groups to 62,979,766.","conversion":"62622250 + 325464 + 32052","retrieved":"2026-08-21","source_snapshot_sha256":null},
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}