{
  "slug": "the-year-that-would-not-disappear",
  "title": "The Year That Would Not Disappear",
  "href": "/strata/the-year-that-would-not-disappear/",
  "field": "particle physics",
  "claim": {
    "statement": "In the energy region between 2 and 6 keV, where data are also available from DAMA/NaI and DAMA/LIBRA–phase1 (14 additional annual cycles), the achieved C.L. for the full exposure (2.86 ton × yr) is 13.7 σ; the modulation amplitude of the single-hit scintillation events is: (0.01014 ± 0.00074) cpd/kg/keV, the measured phase is (142.4 ± 4.2) days and the measured period is (0.99834 ± 0.00067) yr, all these values are well in agreement with those expected for DM particles.",
    "claimants": "R. Bernabei, P. Belli, V. Caracciolo, R. Cerulli, V. Merlo, F. Cappella, A. d'Angelo, A. Incicchitti, C. J. Dai, X. H. Ma, X. D. Sheng, F. Montecchia, Z. P. Ye (DAMA collaboration)",
    "citation": "R. Bernabei, P. Belli, V. Caracciolo, R. Cerulli, V. Merlo, F. Cappella, A. d'Angelo, A. Incicchitti, C. J. Dai, X. H. Ma, X. D. Sheng, F. Montecchia and Z. P. Ye (2021). The dark matter: DAMA/LIBRA and its perspectives. Proceedings manuscript for the Sixteenth Marcel Grossmann Meeting, pp. 1-20, arXiv:2110.04734v1. Abstract, Table 1 (PDF p. 5), Figure 2 (PDF p. 6), Table 2 (PDF p. 7). CC BY 4.0.",
    "year": 2021,
    "headline_as_printed": "2-6 keV, 2.86 ton×yr: A = (0.01014 ± 0.00074) cpd/kg/keV, 13.7 σ, T = (0.99834 ± 0.00067) yr, t0 = (142.4 ± 4.2) days; fixed T = 1 yr and t0 = 152.5 days: A = (0.00996 ± 0.00074) cpd/kg/keV, 13.4 σ, χ²/d.o.f. = 130/155"
  },
  "records": [
    {
      "file": "dama-digitised.json",
      "role": "claimant-data",
      "name": "156 DAMA residual rates digitised from two claimant figures (37 DAMA/NaI, 119 DAMA/LIBRA), 2-6 keV",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/src/2110.04734v1 (fig/fig02.eps) and https://arxiv.org/src/0804.2741v1 (fig2c.eps)",
      "licence": "Numerical transcription. 2021 source CC BY 4.0; 2008 source article CC BY-NC 2.0 (numbers only, no artwork)",
      "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-22",
      "sha256": "d507157eaee5e2493b18c30a8fea5897a3efbadec8f90563e8c6aa936eac98aa",
      "units": 156
    },
    {
      "file": "digitised-calibration.json",
      "role": "reference",
      "name": "Axis calibrations and exclusions for the digitised figures",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/src/2110.04734v1 and https://arxiv.org/src/0804.2741v1",
      "licence": "Numerical transcription (see dama-digitised.json)",
      "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-22",
      "sha256": "443bdf30554e89cd85b23fe3724339d689a2bdbddec931a6e43c511f09970f9c",
      "units": 2
    },
    {
      "file": "dama-guides.json",
      "role": "reference",
      "name": "Positions of the June 2 guide lines DAMA drew in the same two figures",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/src/2110.04734v1 and https://arxiv.org/src/0804.2741v1",
      "licence": "Numerical transcription (see dama-digitised.json)",
      "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-22",
      "sha256": "9d5da674eadfe4469ddbd906590ca31abed230209f56ead5f098e7e9dda42ffb",
      "units": 56
    },
    {
      "file": "dama-cycles.json",
      "role": "reference",
      "name": "Published start and end dates of the 15 accepted DAMA/LIBRA annual cycles",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1308.5109v2 (Table 1) and https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.04734v1 (Table 1)",
      "licence": "Bibliographic facts transcribed from the tables",
      "licence_url": "https://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/license.html",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-22",
      "sha256": "3db93b2e31a3036b3dd775a0ea84ca918e6a8b510b0041fdaaa6d5bc0ba732b5",
      "units": 15
    },
    {
      "file": "anais.json",
      "role": "control-data",
      "name": "ANAIS-112 six-year 2-6 keV rates (441 rows, nine detectors) and simulated background templates",
      "url": "https://gitlab.mpcdf.mpg.de/api/v4/projects/12572/repository/files/event_data%2FANAIS112_6y_45days_2.0keV_6.0keV_D{0..8}.csv/raw?ref=main and simulated_background%2FANAIS112bkg_M1_2.0keV_6.0keV_D{0..8}.csv",
      "licence": "unclear: no redistribution licence stated in the repository readme, DataCite metadata or macro; newly formatted factual numeric extract, no licence asserted",
      "licence_url": "https://gitlab.mpcdf.mpg.de/dmdc/anais/anais112-6years",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-22",
      "sha256": "c4b0e4cbaa1b24a7a1ea28aecd0c1201a9936f5c64915ef2ffd8681e46353c8d",
      "units": 441
    },
    {
      "file": "cosine.json",
      "role": "control-data",
      "name": "COSINE-100 six-year 2-6 keV mean residuals (154 valid rows of 160)",
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CUPCOSINE/PublicData/main/COSINE100-6YearsModulation/data/EventRate_erc2-6.csv",
      "licence": "CC BY 4.0 (extract and reformatting noted in NOTICE.txt)",
      "licence_url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CUPCOSINE/PublicData/main/LICENSE",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-22",
      "sha256": "4a43897b6bd03fad8d6f7501f5b757f4b745a217563fec1895fba440e2f8166f",
      "units": 154
    },
    {
      "file": "cosine-pseudo.json",
      "role": "reference",
      "name": "COSINE-100 pseudo-experiments under the DAMA claim, 2-6 keV (100 bins, 300,000 pseudo-experiments)",
      "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CUPCOSINE/PublicData/main/COSINE100-6YearsModulation/data/PseudoUnderDama_erc2-6.csv",
      "licence": "CC BY 4.0 (reformatted)",
      "licence_url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CUPCOSINE/PublicData/main/LICENSE",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-22",
      "sha256": "450841c48caaab39d73bbc178d0d03acd4fb6c3c16762de2c32b8b3c6444bbf3",
      "units": 100
    },
    {
      "file": "source-manifest.json",
      "role": "reference",
      "name": "Retrieval log of the original sources (URL, status, bytes, SHA-256)",
      "url": "see entries",
      "licence": "Metadata written for this page",
      "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-22",
      "sha256": "cd86479c60d71c01eca0413e5cd973d6422ae77b110f105c0a6904b65930c264",
      "units": null
    },
    {
      "file": "source-manifest-supplement.json",
      "role": "reference",
      "name": "Retrieval log of the sources added on resumption",
      "url": "see entries",
      "licence": "Metadata written for this page",
      "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-22",
      "sha256": "37ea439f09b7824738315a6729dca7c1d79b967f1daf4e3d52969f6c6592a5aa",
      "units": null
    }
  ],
  "anchor": {
    "what": "DAMA's 2021 floated and fixed 2-6 keV fits (Table 2), recomputed by this page's one weighted least-squares engine from the 156 digitised residuals, with bin averaging and a 365-day year as read from DAMA's own figures and text",
    "expected": "floated 0.01014 ± 0.00074 (13.7 σ), period 0.99834 ± 0.00067 yr, phase 142.4 ± 4.2 days; fixed 0.00996 ± 0.00074 (13.4 σ), χ² 130/155",
    "computed": "floated 0.01011 ± 0.00074 (13.63), period 0.99861 ± 0.00221 DAMA years, phase day 141.9 ± 4.3 of 2012; fixed 0.00993 ± 0.00074 (13.41), χ² 129.9/155",
    "agrees": true,
    "tolerance": "amplitude 0.00006, error 0.00001, ratio 0.15 for both fits; half the last printed digit plus the largest movement in 256 seeded coordinate-rounding perturbations gives a budget of 0.000046, 0.0000074 and 0.107, which the tolerances cover, and 254 of the 256 perturbed transcriptions reproduce the anchor. Phase and period are compared in printed standard deviations. The printed period error is NOT reproduced (0.00221 propagated from the plotted errors, 0.00195 from the profile, against 0.00067). Uniform exposure inside each plotted bin is an approximation the tolerance does not bound."
  },
  "control": {
    "name": "ANAIS-112 six-year 2-6 keV fixed-phase annual modulation fit, reconstructed on its public rates; COSINE-100's public 2-6 keV residuals as a second control",
    "citation": "J. Amaré et al., ANAIS-112 Collaboration (2025). Towards a Robust Model-Independent Test of the DAMA/LIBRA Dark Matter Signal: ANAIS-112 Results with Six Years of Data. Physical Review Letters 135, 051001. DOI 10.1103/ntnl-zrn9. arXiv:2502.01542v2 (revised 30 July 2025), Table I and Table II (PDF p. 4); supplemental Table II (PDF p. 12). Second control: N. Carlin et al., COSINE-100 Collaboration (2025). COSINE-100 full dataset challenges the annual modulation signal of DAMA/LIBRA. Science Advances 11, eadv6503. DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adv6503. arXiv:2409.13226v2, Table I.",
    "computed": "ANAIS 0.00105 ± 0.00249 cpd/kg/keV (all 18 printed nuisance parameters reproduced within their printed errors); COSINE 0.00519 ± 0.00314 cpd/kg/keV",
    "as_printed": "ANAIS 1.1 ± 2.5 cpd/ton/keV (0.0011 ± 0.0025 cpd/kg/keV), 3.5 σ from DAMA; COSINE (0.0053 ± 0.0031) cpd/kg/keV"
  },
  "power": {
    "grade": "A-injection",
    "planted": "DAMA's printed 2021 floated fit, 0.01014 cpd/kg/keV with period 0.99834 DAMA years and its maximum on day 142.4 of 2012, added to a copy of ANAIS-112's 441 released rates and to a copy of COSINE-100's 154 released residuals; the printed fixed fit (0.00996, one year, June 2) as a second template",
    "recovered": "ANAIS: change +0.00982, the plant alone 3.95 standard errors (doctored record 0.01087 ± 0.00249, 4.37 in total, of which 0.42 is the released record's own); COSINE: change +0.00977, the plant alone 3.12 (doctored record 0.01497 ± 0.00314, 4.77 in total, of which 1.66 is its own)",
    "verdict": "Decided on the plant alone (the paired change over the refitted error), at the declared 3-standard-error demonstration threshold the ANAIS-112 rate fit COULD have confirmed the claim (3.95), and the COSINE-100 residual fit only marginally could (3.12 by default, 2.92 with the printed phase counted from 1995; 58.2% of COSINE's own pseudo-experiments under DAMA reach 3 times this page's error). At 5 standard errors neither could, so under a 5-sigma standard the page calls the test INCONCLUSIVE."
  },
  "null_through_claimant_method": {
    "applicable": false,
    "what": "The full claimant pipeline cannot be run: DAMA's raw detector rates, per-detector subtraction and noise structure are unpublished, and the verdict has not been decided by this mechanism. Separately implemented instead: annual-mean subtraction (the operation Buttazzo et al. 2020 analysed) applied to a constructed straight-line total rate with no annual component, at the 156 digitised DAMA times, then fitted by the anchor's own cosine estimator, paired with a true annual signal through the same operation.",
    "result": "At slope +0.031 cpd/kg/keV per year the operation induces from −0.00909 to +0.00973 cpd/kg/keV on the June 2 cosine depending on the first day of the year (+0.00973 for years starting 1 September), +0.00874 at DAMA/LIBRA's 15 published cycle dates, and zero under a continuous fit; a true annual signal keeps 89.4% to 99.5%. A deterministic property of the operation, not a false-positive rate."
  },
  "verdict": {
    "category": "OPEN",
    "as_of": "2026-09-22",
    "sources": [
      "R. Bernabei, P. Belli, A. Bussolotti, F. Cappella, V. Caracciolo, R. Cerulli, C. J. Dai, A. d'Angelo, A. Incicchitti, A. Leoncini, X. H. Ma, A. Mattei, V. Merlo, F. Montecchia, X. D. Sheng and Z. P. Ye (2026). Model-independent results from DAMA/LIBRA-phase2-empowered. Nuclear Physics and Atomic Energy 27(2), 105-117. DOI 10.15407/jnpae2026.02.105. Published online 25 June 2026. Abstract p. 105, Table 2 p. 110, section 7 pp. 113-115, conclusions pp. 115-116. CC BY-NC 4.0.",
      "J. Amaré et al., ANAIS-112 Collaboration (2025). Towards a Robust Model-Independent Test of the DAMA/LIBRA Dark Matter Signal: ANAIS-112 Results with Six Years of Data. Physical Review Letters 135, 051001. DOI 10.1103/ntnl-zrn9. arXiv:2502.01542v2 (revised 30 July 2025), Table I and Table II (PDF p. 4); supplemental Table II (PDF p. 12).",
      "N. Carlin et al., COSINE-100 Collaboration (2025). COSINE-100 full dataset challenges the annual modulation signal of DAMA/LIBRA. Science Advances 11, eadv6503. DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adv6503. arXiv:2409.13226v2, Table I.",
      "N. Carlin et al., COSINE-100 and ANAIS-112 Collaborations (2025). Combined Annual Modulation Dark Matter Search with COSINE-100 and ANAIS-112. Physical Review Letters 135, 121002. DOI 10.1103/9j7w-qp1c. arXiv:2503.19559v2, revised 22 September 2025. Abstract; the joint MCMC uses three-year records.",
      "G. Busoni, J. M. Cornell, W. Handley, F. Kahlhoefer, A. Kvellestad, M. Pitts, L. Street, A. C. Vincent and M. White. DAMA/LIBRA and dark matter: decisive tension or contrived cancellation. arXiv:2510.05216v2, revised 24 June 2026. Accepted for publication; the final venue was not verified here."
    ],
    "would_change": "An independent sodium iodide detector observing the same amplitude, energy dependence and calendar phase, with its detector response controlled, would support a common physical signal. An identified instrumental or background cause that quantitatively reproduces DAMA's rate and passes DAMA's internal checks would establish an explanation of the rhythm. A response-calibrated same-target exclusion strong enough to close a specified dark matter interpretation would close that interpretation, without explaining where DAMA's rhythm comes from. The DAMA project was concluded as planned and its experimental setups were dismantled in fall 2024, so new evidence must come from other detectors, from reanalysis of what DAMA recorded, or from DAMA's crystals run again by others: a June 2026 ANAIS-112 talk reported that INFN and the Gran Sasso laboratory have taken responsibility for the DAMA/LIBRA detectors and plan to restart the measurements within an international collaboration (slide 23). COSINUS, a cryogenic sodium iodide experiment at the same laboratory, reported in April 2026 that data taking with eight detector modules is planned to begin in 2026."
  },
  "decided_by": "not-yet",
  "years_to_decision": null,
  "choices": [
    {
      "id": "control",
      "label": "Independent experiment",
      "options": [
        "ANAIS",
        "COSINE"
      ],
      "default": "ANAIS",
      "affects": [
        "control rate series",
        "fitted amplitude",
        "fitted error",
        "injection result"
      ],
      "inert": false
    },
    {
      "id": "template",
      "label": "Added to the copy of the released rates",
      "options": [
        "none",
        "floated",
        "fixed"
      ],
      "default": "none",
      "affects": [
        "doctored rates",
        "fitted amplitude",
        "plant-alone detection statistic"
      ],
      "inert": false
    },
    {
      "id": "threshold",
      "label": "Demonstration detection threshold, standard errors",
      "options": [
        3,
        5
      ],
      "default": 3,
      "affects": [
        "threshold margin",
        "detection state"
      ],
      "inert": false
    },
    {
      "id": "sampling",
      "label": "How a plotted time bin enters the claimant fit",
      "options": [
        "average",
        "centre"
      ],
      "default": "average",
      "affects": [
        "reconstructed amplitude",
        "anchor gap",
        "boundary sweep"
      ],
      "inert": false
    },
    {
      "id": "yearDays",
      "label": "Length of DAMA's year, days",
      "options": [
        365,
        365.25
      ],
      "default": 365,
      "affects": [
        "fixed-fit amplitude and chi-square",
        "period in years",
        "phase day",
        "planted waveform calendar"
      ],
      "inert": false
    },
    {
      "id": "reading",
      "label": "Where the printed phase is counted from",
      "options": [
        "centre",
        "origin"
      ],
      "default": "centre",
      "affects": [
        "recomputed phase and its error",
        "maximum of the floated plant"
      ],
      "inert": false
    },
    {
      "id": "slope",
      "label": "Constructed background slope, cpd/kg/keV per year",
      "options": [
        -0.05,
        0.05
      ],
      "kind": "range",
      "default": 0.031,
      "affects": [
        "induced amplitude",
        "total rate change"
      ],
      "inert": false
    },
    {
      "id": "boundary",
      "label": "First day of each constructed year",
      "options": [
        0,
        364
      ],
      "kind": "range",
      "default": 243,
      "affects": [
        "induced amplitude",
        "induced phase",
        "retained true-signal amplitude"
      ],
      "inert": false
    },
    {
      "id": "method",
      "label": "Background operation",
      "options": [
        "annual",
        "continuous"
      ],
      "default": "annual",
      "affects": [
        "induced amplitude",
        "retained true-signal amplitude"
      ],
      "inert": false
    }
  ],
  "headline": "Rebuilt from its own plotted points, DAMA's 2021 amplitude returns as 0.01011 ± 0.00074 cpd/kg/keV against the printed 0.01014 ± 0.00074. Planted at that size in a copy of ANAIS-112's public rates, it adds 3.95 standard errors to the unmodified fit, while the untouched ANAIS record sits 3.44 combined standard errors below DAMA's fixed-phase claim. What causes the rhythm is OPEN.",
  "novelty": "we searched the Wasteland corpus, arXiv-indexed web results and GitHub-indexed web results on 2026-09-22 and did not find an interactive page joining the 2021 DAMA residual reconstruction, injections into the public ANAIS and COSINE rate fits, and a paired boundary sweep of induced modulation and true-signal retention.",
  "ledger": {
    "claim_reproduced": {
      "value": true,
      "assertion": "anchor:dama-2021-floated-and-fixed"
    },
    "control_computed": {
      "value": true,
      "assertion": "control:anais-and-cosine-public-fits"
    },
    "control_can_confirm": {
      "value": true,
      "assertion": "power:planted-2021-claim-recovered-in-copies"
    },
    "rendered_figures_asserted": {
      "value": true,
      "assertion": "surface:main-head-frontmatter-record"
    },
    "choices_are_live": {
      "value": true,
      "assertion": "choices:each-moves-its-named-output"
    },
    "planted_fault_caught": {
      "value": true,
      "assertion": "fault:first-rows-removed-and-epoch-moved"
    },
    "refusal_asserted": {
      "value": true,
      "assertion": "refuse:window-epoch-rows-inference"
    },
    "provenance_pinned": {
      "value": true,
      "assertion": "provenance:sha256-matches"
    },
    "verdict_dated": {
      "value": true,
      "assertion": "verdict:open-date-sources-printed"
    }
  }
}