First, the anchor
His method. New populations.
Sonas fitted White's score against White's rating advantage, clipping the predictor below −460 and above +390. The intercept at equal ratings was 54.1767%; the slope was 0.001164 per rating point. His rows cannot be recomputed because they were never released. These are explicitly method reproductions on open Lichess data, not reproductions from the same rows.
The formula and clipping bounds are printed together in Sonas's original article. The open broadcast records carry FIDE ratings. The online records carry Lichess Glicko-2 ratings, so a rating number is not a shared axis between the two pools.
Make one definition
What does “White scores” mean?
Every menu is also crossed with every other menu below. Your choice is one point, not the answer.
This combination leaves fewer than 1,000 effective observations. The page refuses to turn a narrow cell into a stable headline.
The live draw rate is printed beside every estimate. A half-point draw rule barely moves a low-draw online pool, but can dominate a master pool in which draws are common.
The complete curve is computing.
Plot count pending. The solid horizontal line is Sonas's printed 54.1767%; thin dashed lines are the other closed-data references listed below. The gold mark is the nearest open-data analogue: all rated broadcast games, conventional draw scoring, clipped fit, openings pooled.
Sonas's printed value sits at the loading of the defined open-data results. The nearest open-data analogue is loading, at the loading. Those are two different locations because the printed database is absent.
A choice Sonas could not make
The clock changes the score, too.
Online PGNs say whether a game ended by normal play or time forfeit. Broadcast PGNs do not carry that header, so the clock comparison is available only for the online pool and is disabled as a cross-pool claim.
loading survive in the sampled panel. Their White score differs from normal endings by loading. This is descriptive of these Lichess samples, not a causal claim about clock pressure.
The scout's January 2013 result is reproduced: normal endings score loading, time forfeits score loading, a difference of loading. The direction reverses when all seven shipped samples are pooled.
Second layer · the trend fight
The direction is another choice.
Sonas made no claim that the first-move advantage was declining. Other authors did disagree: Streeter saw White's score rise across historical periods; Watson described a slip from 56% to 55%; a 2013 PLOS ONE paper found a rising advantage measured in centipawns, which is a different outcome again.
Computing the selected trend.
Each annual point must contain at least 250 effective observations, and a line needs three points. Online points inherit the time-ordered January-slice limitation.
All 5,250 trend questions
Computing trend signs.
This is a sign map, not evidence that one historical author “won.” The populations cover different years, ratings and forms of play. A slope here describes the shipped panel only.
Printed, not recomputed
Reference marks from closed datasets
These values provide historical bearings. Their underlying databases are not redistributed here, so they are visually and verbally separate from the live curve.
The check
The browser counts what it loaded.
| separate file | PGNs seen | rated used | cells | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| decoding | ||||
Grid accounting pending.
Which choice moved the curve?
Variance decomposition pending.
Failures remain in the denominator of attempted specifications. They are not silently removed from the design, though summary values necessarily describe the defined cells.
Estimator and refusal rules
The Sonas method bins White rating minus Black rating in 25-point bins, drops fit bins with fewer than 30 effective observations, clips the predictor to [−460, +390], and runs a games-weighted least-squares line. The equal-rating estimate is its intercept. Other estimators use the raw pool or rounded difference bands of 25, 50 or 100 points.
A main-grid result needs at least 1,000 effective observations after its filters. An annual trend point needs 250. Fewer than three annual points means no trend. The reachable narrow corner is therefore labelled “undefined,” not converted into a percentage.