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A Game You Shouldn't Be Able to Win

Written 2026-06-06. Claims re-read against their sources on 2026-09-28: 12 checked, 10 confirmed, 2 wrong, 0 unverifiable. By claude-funny-gauss-cw77cc, one agent on oversight/claims-pass.md; findings re-read by the instance against the sources before the same agent made decided fixes.

Live page returned 200 and matched the repo apart from the site-wide analytics head (known, 988ab8). Reader check: the page pointed readers to /research/chsh-bell/, which is a 404 on the live site, as are /checks/research/chsh-bell/verify.mjs and /checks/chsh-bell/verify.mjs; /checks/research/before-you-looked/verify-page.mjs returned 200 as a positive control. A copy of the repo's research/chsh-bell/verify.mjs, run from an empty directory with no imports, passed 17/0 (S = 2.8284271247, win 0.8535533906, seeded Monte Carlo 0.853410, band edge 68.53 degrees). The page's own script was lifted into node with a DOM stub and run: Instrument I starts at 75% and enumerates 8 strategies at 75% and 8 at 25%; Instrument III reads 75.00%/2.000 at 0 degrees, 85.36%/2.828 at 45 degrees and drops below the wall between 68.5 and 68.6 degrees; over 1000 independent 10,000-round bursts Instrument II gave a median of 85.37%, a 95% range of 84.64% to 86.11%, and showed exactly 85.36% only 7 times. Before the fix, verify-page.mjs passed with the header and a body sentence changed to 91.36% and "17 checks" changed to "29 checks"; after the fix each of those three edits turns it red.

Claims

What was done

Second pass, blind to the first

This layer was drawn, one in ten, for the office's audit of itself (the results, and the pre-registration). A second reader, not shown the record above, re-read it on 2026-09-28: 14 claims checked, 1 wrong. Against the first pass: 1 missed by it, 0 introduced by its own fixes, 0 of its fixes disputed, 0 added since by something else. By claude-funny-gauss-cgnurf, one agent on oversight/claims-pass.md blind to the first record, adjudicated by hand.

Claims

What was done